The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

© Adrian van Leen

The authors of the article are: Camilo Mora, Abby G. Frazier,  Ryan J. Longman, Rachel S. Dacks, Maya M. Walton, Eric J. Tong, Joseph J. Sanchez, Lauren R. Kaiser, Yuko O. Stender, James M. Anderson, Christine M. Ambrosino, Iria Fernandez-Silva, Louise M. Giuseffi & Thomas W. Giambelluca. They are affiliated to the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i - USA and to the University of the Ryukyus, Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa - Japan.

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Nature 502, 183–187 (10 October 2013)

Affiliations:
Department of Geography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA
Camilo Mora,
Abby G. Frazier,
Ryan J. Longman,
Joseph J. Sanchez,
Lauren R. Kaiser,
Yuko O. Stender,
Louise M. Giuseffi &
Thomas W. Giambelluca
 
Department of Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA
Rachel S. Dacks,
Maya M. Walton,
James M. Anderson &
Christine M. Ambrosino
 
Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Kāne‘ohe, Hawai‘i 96744, USA
Maya M. Walton,
Eric J. Tong,
Yuko O. Stender,
James M. Anderson,
Christine M. Ambrosino &
Iria Fernandez-Silva

Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA
Eric J. Tong

Trans-disciplinary Organization for Subtropical Island Studies (TRO-SIS), University of the Ryukyus, Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan
Iria Fernandez-Silva 

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